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The Black Swan
13,99 € *
ggf. zzgl. Versand

The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don't understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, "On Robustness and Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book-itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb "The most prophetic voice of all."-GQ Praise for The Black Swan "[A book] that altered modern thinking."-The Times (London) "A masterpiece."-Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant."-Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times "The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works."-Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy."-The Wall Street Journal "Hugely enjoyable-compelling . . . easy to dip into."-Financial Times "Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition."-The New York Times Book Review

Anbieter: buecher
Stand: 09.04.2020
Zum Angebot
The Black Swan
13,99 € *
ggf. zzgl. Versand

The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don't understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, "On Robustness and Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book-itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb "The most prophetic voice of all."-GQ Praise for The Black Swan "[A book] that altered modern thinking."-The Times (London) "A masterpiece."-Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant."-Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times "The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works."-Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy."-The Wall Street Journal "Hugely enjoyable-compelling . . . easy to dip into."-Financial Times "Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition."-The New York Times Book Review

Anbieter: buecher
Stand: 09.04.2020
Zum Angebot
The Black Swan
18,00 € *
ggf. zzgl. Versand

The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don't understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable, it carries a massive impact, and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan, so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible."For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, "On Robustness and Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book-itself a black swan.Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb"The most prophetic voice of all."-GQPraise for The Black Swan"[A book] that altered modern thinking."-The Times (London)"A masterpiece."-Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail"Idiosyncratically brilliant."-Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times"The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works."-Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate"[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy."-The Wall Street Journal"Hugely enjoyable-compelling . . . easy to dip into."-Financial Times"Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition."-The New York Times Book Review

Anbieter: Dodax
Stand: 09.04.2020
Zum Angebot
The Human Network: How Your Social Position Det...
36,90 CHF *
ggf. zzgl. Versand

'Compelling... Why can’t money buy you mobility? The Human Network is most fascinating and convincing in addressing this question... Professor Jackson manages not only to present a lot of complex research engagingly but to show how the key concepts of network theory relate to a wide range of contemporary issues, from financial contagions to the spread of fake news.' —The New York Times 'Drawing on the academic discipline known as network theory, Mr. Jackson aims to introduce and popularize a powerful way of understanding some of modern society’s central challenges... Mastering the many concepts Mr. Jackson introduces requires careful attention. But The Human Network rewards the effort.' —The Wall Street Journal 'A mixture of delicious truths and ingenious sociological concepts that will convince most readers that we pay too much attention to the people around us.' —Kirkus Reviews “Networks show up as powerful forces in virtually every social science. The same phenomena appear in different disguises in different disciplines, but few scholars have the intellectual breadth to recognize these common behavior patterns, and fewer still have the ability to communicate effectively with a broad and diverse audience. Matt Jackson is one such person, and his book is a welcome introduction to this fascinating subject.”  —Hal Varian, chief economist at Google “Civilization depends on connections between people—on ‘the human network’—for trade, cooperation, and communication. In this beautifully readable and fascinating book, Matt Jackson shows that the science of networks can help answer deep questions such as why inequality and polarization arise, and how biological and financial epidemics spread.”  —Eric S. Maskin, Nobel Laureate in Economics, Harvard University   “Much of what we do, and even quite a bit of what we think, is shaped by our friends, neighbors, coworkers, and increasingly our social media connections. This thought-provoking book explains how and why human networks matter so much, and why they can be a source of strength and fragility. A must-read.”  —Daron Acemoglu, Professor of Economics, MIT, and co-author of the New York Times best-seller Why Nations Fail   “Spanning a rich array of topics, including the spread of epidemics and financial crises, political polarization, and economic inequality, The Human Network is a highly readable yet deeply informed survey of social life viewed through the lens of networks. Matt Jackson proves that he is not only one of the world’s leading theorists of network science; he is also one of its best expositors.”  —Duncan Watts, principal researcher at Microsoft and author of Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age   “Matthew Jackson leads us through a brilliantly insightful tour of how the structures of social networks shape our lives and indeed our very humanity.”  —Roger Myerson, Nobel Laureate in Economics, University of Chicago

Anbieter: Orell Fuessli CH
Stand: 09.04.2020
Zum Angebot
The Black Swan
18,05 CHF *
zzgl. 3,50 CHF Versand

The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don't understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible.' For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, 'On Robustness and Fragility,' which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book-itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb 'The most prophetic voice of all.'-GQ Praise for The Black Swan '[A book] that altered modern thinking.'-The Times (London) 'A masterpiece.'-Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail 'Idiosyncratically brilliant.'-Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times 'The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.'-Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate '[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.'-The Wall Street Journal 'Hugely enjoyable-compelling . . . easy to dip into.'-Financial Times 'Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.'-The New York Times Book Review

Anbieter: Orell Fuessli CH
Stand: 09.04.2020
Zum Angebot
The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of t...
39,90 CHF *
ggf. zzgl. Versand

The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don't understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible.' For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, 'On Robustness and Fragility,' which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book-itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb 'The most prophetic voice of all.'-GQ Praise for The Black Swan '[A book] that altered modern thinking.'-The Times (London) 'A masterpiece.'-Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail 'Idiosyncratically brilliant.'-Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times 'The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.'-Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate '[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.'-The Wall Street Journal 'Hugely enjoyable-compelling . . . easy to dip into.'-Financial Times 'Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.'-The New York Times Book Review

Anbieter: Orell Fuessli CH
Stand: 09.04.2020
Zum Angebot
The Black Swan
13,99 € *
zzgl. 3,00 € Versand

The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don't understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible.' For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, 'On Robustness and Fragility,' which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book-itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb 'The most prophetic voice of all.'-GQ Praise for The Black Swan '[A book] that altered modern thinking.'-The Times (London) 'A masterpiece.'-Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail 'Idiosyncratically brilliant.'-Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times 'The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.'-Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate '[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.'-The Wall Street Journal 'Hugely enjoyable-compelling . . . easy to dip into.'-Financial Times 'Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.'-The New York Times Book Review

Anbieter: Thalia AT
Stand: 09.04.2020
Zum Angebot
The Human Network: How Your Social Position Det...
25,99 € *
ggf. zzgl. Versand

'Compelling... Why can’t money buy you mobility? The Human Network is most fascinating and convincing in addressing this question... Professor Jackson manages not only to present a lot of complex research engagingly but to show how the key concepts of network theory relate to a wide range of contemporary issues, from financial contagions to the spread of fake news.' —The New York Times 'Drawing on the academic discipline known as network theory, Mr. Jackson aims to introduce and popularize a powerful way of understanding some of modern society’s central challenges... Mastering the many concepts Mr. Jackson introduces requires careful attention. But The Human Network rewards the effort.' —The Wall Street Journal 'A mixture of delicious truths and ingenious sociological concepts that will convince most readers that we pay too much attention to the people around us.' —Kirkus Reviews “Networks show up as powerful forces in virtually every social science. The same phenomena appear in different disguises in different disciplines, but few scholars have the intellectual breadth to recognize these common behavior patterns, and fewer still have the ability to communicate effectively with a broad and diverse audience. Matt Jackson is one such person, and his book is a welcome introduction to this fascinating subject.”  —Hal Varian, chief economist at Google “Civilization depends on connections between people—on ‘the human network’—for trade, cooperation, and communication. In this beautifully readable and fascinating book, Matt Jackson shows that the science of networks can help answer deep questions such as why inequality and polarization arise, and how biological and financial epidemics spread.”  —Eric S. Maskin, Nobel Laureate in Economics, Harvard University   “Much of what we do, and even quite a bit of what we think, is shaped by our friends, neighbors, coworkers, and increasingly our social media connections. This thought-provoking book explains how and why human networks matter so much, and why they can be a source of strength and fragility. A must-read.”  —Daron Acemoglu, Professor of Economics, MIT, and co-author of the New York Times best-seller Why Nations Fail   “Spanning a rich array of topics, including the spread of epidemics and financial crises, political polarization, and economic inequality, The Human Network is a highly readable yet deeply informed survey of social life viewed through the lens of networks. Matt Jackson proves that he is not only one of the world’s leading theorists of network science; he is also one of its best expositors.”  —Duncan Watts, principal researcher at Microsoft and author of Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age   “Matthew Jackson leads us through a brilliantly insightful tour of how the structures of social networks shape our lives and indeed our very humanity.”  —Roger Myerson, Nobel Laureate in Economics, University of Chicago

Anbieter: Thalia AT
Stand: 09.04.2020
Zum Angebot
The Black Swan
13,99 € *
zzgl. 3,00 € Versand

The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don't understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible.' For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, 'On Robustness and Fragility,' which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book-itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb 'The most prophetic voice of all.'-GQ Praise for The Black Swan '[A book] that altered modern thinking.'-The Times (London) 'A masterpiece.'-Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail 'Idiosyncratically brilliant.'-Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times 'The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.'-Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate '[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.'-The Wall Street Journal 'Hugely enjoyable-compelling . . . easy to dip into.'-Financial Times 'Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.'-The New York Times Book Review

Anbieter: Thalia AT
Stand: 09.04.2020
Zum Angebot